ST. LOUIS — There was the feel of a political world turned upside down on Saturday as Senator John McCain found himself defending North Carolina and Virginia, while Senator Barack Obama was greeted by huge crowds in Missouri, which Republicans had also considered safe just months ago.
Mr. McCain has escalated his attacks in recent days, all but accusing Mr. Obama on Saturday of being a socialist and saying his rival’s tax plan would turn the Internal Revenue Service into “a giant welfare agency.” Mr. McCain, Republican of Arizona, attached the politically charged word “welfare” to Mr. Obama for the second successive day.
For his part, Mr. Obama depicted Mr. McCain, who favors extending tax cuts for wealthier Americans, as removed from the reality of the hard times descending on the nation.
Mr. Obama, Democrat of Illinois, gave a striking sign of his electoral muscle when he arrived here and journeyed to the Gateway Arch on the Mississippi River. He saw 100,000 people spread out before him, a vast turnout in a state that teeters between the Republicans and Democrats.
Even Mr. Obama, who can wear self-possession like an overcoat, seemed taken aback. “What a magnificent day the Lord has made,” he said. “And thank you for being here today.”
The crowd offered a bubbling optimism that was at once tinged with a shot of wariness.
“Whoo! I am on a high to see so many people of so many colors,” said Nicole Brown, a young woman who lives in St. Louis. “I mean, I’m anxious — is this real?”
Others spoke of the economic anxiety, the dreary 401(k) portfolios and the layoffs that are beginning to ripple across the country. They lend anecdotal credence to the sense that the economic crisis has put a finger on the Democratic side of the electoral scales.
“Even the most conservative people know we’re in trouble,” said Debbie Sachs, a teacher from St. Louis. “People are scared, and he” — she pointed toward the stage where Mr. Obama was about to speak — “is cool.”
President Bill Clinton, in 1996, was the last Democrat to carry Missouri in a presidential election.
The changing electoral map presents pleasant complications for Mr. Obama. He must choose almost daily whether to take his fight to the electorally rich states of Florida and Ohio, both rated as tossups, or light out for such Republican territory as Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina.
“We’ve wanted to shatter the old assumptions about red states and blue states,” said Mr. Obama’s chief strategist, David Axelrod. “We’ve been locked in this dreary formula where there are three states that determine the election.”
But, Mr. Axelrod acknowledged, a state that appears safe, like Pennsylvania, could slide in a matter of days. And that gnaws at him. “I still can’t get any sleep,” he said.
That is why Mr. McCain’s running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, was campaigning once again in Pennsylvania on Saturday, this time in Lancaster County, a socially conservative area between Philadelphia and Harrisburg.
Mr. McCain began his day in Concord, N.C., north of Charlotte. He spoke in front of a “Victory in North Carolina” banner and a North Carolina state flag, not to mention supporters wearing “North Carolina for McCain-Palin” T-shirts.Jimmy Carter, in 1976, was the last Democrat to win the presidential vote in North Carolina. Most polls show Mr. Obama with a slim lead there.
The financial turmoil has forced Mr. McCain to spend day after day talking about the economy — not his favorite subject, as he has acknowledged — and separating himself from the policies of President Bush.
Mr. McCain once again seized on what Mr. Obama said to Joe Wurzelbacher, the Ohio man now famously known as Joe the Plumber, when he explained why he favored a progressive income tax over a flat tax.
“We learned that Senator Obama’s economic goal, as he told Joe, is to, quote, ‘spread the wealth around,’ ” Mr. McCain said at the rally in Concord. “We’ve seen that movie before in other countries and attempts by the liberal left in this country before.”
Mr. McCain went further in his weekly radio address. He accused Mr. Obama, who favors giving tax credits to some who pay payroll taxes but not income taxes, of wanting to turn the I.R.S. “into a giant welfare agency, redistributing massive amounts of wealth.”
“At least in Europe,” Mr. McCain said, “the Socialist leaders who so admire my opponent are upfront about their objectives.”
[Pointer: the word "socialist" has for Republicans the same intention as the word "communist"]
Patricia Watts, 48, an insurance agent who was at the Concord rally, found herself balanced on a political fence until a week ago, when she heard Mr. McCain declare that he was not Mr. Bush. That worked for her.
“I realized,” Ms. Watts said, “you don’t have to change parties to have a change.”
She had briefly considered Mr. Obama, she said, but is now “afraid” of him and thinks he will bring “socialization.”
But contradictions pop up, as the government, led by a Republican president, intervened in the private sector by approving a $700 billion bailout to buy up distressed securities related to mortgages as well as interests in banks in need of cash. Mr. McCain’s health plan is centered on giving $2,500 tax credits to people, regardless of whether they pay income taxes.
And in North Carolina, Mr. McCain spoke of his plan to buy up distressed mortgages with some of that $700 billion.
“I’m going to spend a lot of that money bringing relief to you,” he said, adding, “We need to buy up these home loan mortgages, give you a mortgage that you can afford.”
The electoral landscape has grown complicated for the Republicans in recent weeks, with polls showing closely contested states like Pennsylvania sliding toward Mr. Obama. He is also running well in Virginia, which has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964.
On Saturday, the Democrats distributed a transcript in which a senior McCain adviser, Nancy Pfotenhauer, told MSNBC that Northern Virginia, where Mr. McCain also campaigned on Saturday, was not “the real Virginia.”
But the Republicans have not yet waved a white flag, which is what brought Ms. Palin to Lancaster on Saturday.
As Mr. McCain did in North Carolina, Ms. Palin repeatedly invoked Joe the Plumber.
“So when he left Joe’s neighborhood in Toledo,” Ms. Palin said, “our opponent didn’t look real happy. Seems that the staged photo op there got ruined by a real person’s question.”
Ms. Palin, as has become her custom, did not take questions from the crowd or reporters.
The race is now all about confidence, trying to build up confidence for Republicans and guarding against overconfidence for Democrats.
In St. Louis, Mr. Obama, who is not immune to the vapors of overconfidence, caught himself talking about what he would do when he was president. He shook his head.
“No, no; I’m superstitious,” he said. “If I’m president ...”
The campaign recorded a short video to share the latest numbers:
