19 dec 2008

Rachel Maddow on Torture Logic


Tortured Reasoning by David Rose, Vanity Fair
...
The case of Abu Zubaydah is a suitable place to begin answering some pressing but little-considered questions. Putting aside all legal and ethical issues (not to mention the P.R. ramifications), does such treatment—categorized unhesitatingly by the International Committee of the Red Cross as torture—actually work, in the sense of providing reliable, actionable intelligence? Is it superior to other interrogation methods, and if they had the choice, free of moral qualms or the fear of prosecution, would interrogators use it freely?

President Bush has said it works extremely well, insisting it has been a vital weapon in America’s counterterrorist arsenal. Vice President Dick Cheney and C.I.A. director Michael Hayden have made similar assertions. In fact, time and again, Bush has been given opportunities to distance his administration from the use of coercive methods but has stood steadfastly by their use. His most detailed exposition came in a White House announcement on September 6, 2006, when he said such tactics had led to the capture of top al-Qaeda operatives and had thwarted a number of planned attacks, including plots to strike U.S. Marines in Djibouti, fly planes into office towers in London, and detonate a radioactive “dirty” bomb in America. “Were it not for this program, our intelligence community believes that al-Qaeda and its allies would have succeeded in launching another attack against the American homeland. By giving us information about terrorist plans we could not get anywhere else, this program has saved innocent lives.”

Really? In researching this article, I spoke to numerous counterterrorist officials from agencies on both sides of the Atlantic. Their conclusion is unanimous: not only have coercive methods failed to generate significant and actionable intelligence, they have also caused the squandering of resources on a massive scale through false leads, chimerical plots, and unnecessary safety alerts—with Abu Zubaydah’s case one of the most glaring examples.

Here, they say, far from exposing a deadly plot, all torture did was lead to more torture of his supposed accomplices while also providing some misleading “information” that boosted the administration’s argument for invading Iraq.

Everything that was to go wrong with the interrogation of Abu Zubaydah flowed from a first, fatal misjudgment. Although his name had long been familiar to the C.I.A., that did not make him an operational terrorist planner or, as Bush put it in September 2006, “a senior terrorist leader and a trusted associate of Osama bin Laden.” Instead, Scheuer says, he was “the main cog in the way they organized,” a point of contact for Islamists from many parts of the globe seeking combat training in the Afghan camps. However, only a tiny percentage would ever be tapped for recruitment by al-Qaeda.

According to Scheuer, Abu Zubaydah “never swore bayat [al-Qaeda’s oath of allegiance] to bin Laden,” and the enemy he focused on was Israel, not the U.S. After Abu Zubaydah’s capture, Dan Coleman, an F.B.I. counterterrorist veteran, had the job of combing through Abu Zubaydah’s journals and other documents seized from his Faisalabad safe house. He confirms Scheuer’s assessment. “Abu Zubaydah was like a receptionist, like the guy at the front desk here,” says Coleman, gesturing toward the desk clerk in the lobby of the Virginia hotel where we have met. “He takes their papers, he sends them out. It’s an important position, but he’s not recruiting or planning.” It was also significant that he was not well versed in al-Qaeda’s tight internal-security methods: “That was why his name had been cropping up for years.”

Declassified reports of legal interviews with Abu Zubaydah at his current residence, Guantánamo Bay, suggest that he lacked the capacity to do much more. In the early 1990s, fighting in the Afghan civil war that followed the Soviet withdrawal, he was injured so badly that he could not speak for almost two years. “I tried to become al-Qaeda,” Abu Zubaydah told his lawyer, Brent Mickum, “but they said, ‘No, you are illiterate and can’t even remember how to shoot.’” Coleman found Abu Zubaydah’s diary to be startlingly useless. “There’s nothing in there that refers to anything outside his head, not even when he saw something on the news, not about any al-Qaeda attack, not even 9/11,” he says. “All it does is reveal someone in torment. Based on what I saw of his personality, he could not be what they say he was.”

In May 2008, a report by Glenn Fine, the Department of Justice inspector general, stated that, as he recovered in the hospital from the bullet wounds sustained when he was captured, Abu Zubaydah began to cooperate with two F.B.I. agents. It was a promising start, but “within a few days,” wrote Fine, he was handed over to the C.I.A., whose agents soon reported that he was providing only “throw-away information” and that, according to Fine, they “needed to diminish his capacity to resist.” His new interrogators continued to question him by very different means at so-called black-site prisons in Thailand and Eastern Europe. They were determined to prove he was much more important than the innkeeper of a safe house.

Bush discussed Abu Zubaydah’s treatment in his 2006 announcement. “As his questioning proceeded, it became clear that he had received training on how to resist interrogation. And so the C.I.A. used an alternative set of procedures…. The procedures were tough, and they were safe, and lawful, and necessary.” Soon, Bush went on, Abu Zubaydah “began to provide information on key al-Qaeda operatives, including information that helped us find and capture more of those responsible for the attacks on September 11.” Among them, Bush said, were Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the alleged 9/11 mastermind, and his fellow conspirator Ramzi Binalshibh. In fact, Binalshibh was not arrested for another six months and K.S.M. not for another year. In K.S.M.’s case, the lead came from an informant motivated by a $25 million reward.

As for K.S.M. himself, who (as Jane Mayer writes) was waterboarded, reportedly hung for hours on end from his wrists, beaten, and subjected to other agonies for weeks, Bush said he provided “many details of other plots to kill innocent Americans.” K.S.M. was certainly knowledgeable. It would be surprising if he gave up nothing of value. But according to a former senior C.I.A. official, who read all the interrogation reports on K.S.M., “90 percent of it was total fucking bullshit.” A former Pentagon analyst adds: “K.S.M. produced no actionable intelligence. He was trying to tell us how stupid we were.”

It is, perhaps, a little late, more than six years after detainees began to be interrogated at Guantánamo Bay and at the C.I.A.’s black-site prisons, to be asking whether torture works. Yet according to numerous C.I.A. and F.B.I. officials interviewed for this article, at the time this question really mattered, in the months after 9/11, no one seriously addressed it. Those who advocated a policy that would lead America to deploy methods it had always previously abhorred simply assumed they would be worthwhile. Non-governmental advocates of torture, such as the Harvard legal scholar Alan Dershowitz, have emphasized the “ticking bomb” scenario: the hypothetical circumstance when only torture will make the captured terrorist reveal where he—or his colleagues—has planted the timed nuclear device. Inside the C.I.A., says a retired senior officer who was privy to the agency’s internal debate, there was hardly any argument about the value of coercive methods: “Nobody in intelligence believes in the ticking bomb. It’s just a way of framing the debate for public consumption. That is not an intelligence reality.”

Rachel Maddow on Bush's new abortion rule and "asleep at the swich"


Asleep At The Swich

Richard D. "Rick" Warren has pushed Blagojevich from the frontpages


Though maintaining traditional evangelical positions on issues such as abortion and gay marriage, Warren has challenged the conservative views of many evangelical leaders by devoting less attention to these issues and instead calling on the church to focus its efforts on fighting international poverty and disease, expanding educational opportunity for the marginalized, and combatting global warming. He has thus worked to promote an evangelical movement that is more centrist rather than wedded to the Republican Party. He has maintained good relations with both Republicans and Democrats, and during the 2008 presidential election he hosted the Civil Forum on The Presidency featuring both John McCain and Barack Obama at his church. President-Elect Obama chose Warren to deliver the invocation at his inauguration, a decision that has drawn some criticism as a result of several of Warren's public positions, including his support of California's Proposition 8.
I don't understand how anyone who listened to Obama during the campaign would be shocked that Obama lets Warren give the invocation. It's vintage Obama. It does not signal agreement with Warren's political positions, some of which are clearly at odds with Obama's. Warren isn't making policy or even giving a sermon., He's saying a prayer and then possibly dancing later at some inaugural parties. If anything, it's the possibility of this dancing that should be deeply troubling to all Americans.
Rick Warren felt some of this same heat when he invited Barack Obama to speak at his church on World Aids Day. Conservatives railed against Warren for legitimizing Obama. People with different political opinions aren't supposed to come together in anything but a shouting match.
In a few weeks, Barack Obama will be sworn in as President and be joined by two men leading prayers - Rick Warren and Joseph Lowery. Lowery is the 'dean of the Civil Rights movement', the man who founded the Southern Christian Leadership Conference with Martin Luther King Jr. Lowery supports same sex marriage.
There's something bigger at play here and you can't say Obama didn't warn you. He talked about reaching out, about expanding our politics and that crazy bastard actually meant it. Nobody on the left or right quite knows what to make of it. We want to cram Obama into our old, divisive, two toned ideological and political frame and if he doesn't fit, we'll attack him too. Attacking is what we're used to doing.
But in the long run this new politics benefits us all. Ironically, it benefits the minorities and marginalized and ill-treated the most. I know this may be hard for many to see right now but the truth is that this sort of symbol is what America needs. Not seeing just Warren on stage or just Lowery but seeing both of them of there at once
Obama said it in the abstract time and again during the campaign. Now he's showing us. Seeing the things that Pastor Rick Warren and Reverend Joseph Lowery have in common is more important than seeing the things that separate them. America needs to see that. It's a step down the road where a majority of us see the things that straight Americans in love want are the same things that gay Americans in love want, too.
If you are mad about Rick Warren, I'm not attacking you. I understand your anger and I'm not saying it's not justified. But it's all right to let your anger go, too. It doesn't mean surrender, it doesn't mean giving up the struggle for equality.
It means doing unto others as you would have them do unto you. It means winning, right now - because the fight against hate starts whenever you want it, in your own heart. You can win a battle right now by not hating.

Can I get an amen?

Mugabe insists 'Zimbabwe is mine'

Mugabe: "I will never surrender"


President Robert Mugabe has said that "Zimbabwe is mine" and rejected calls from some African leaders to step down. "I will never, never, never surrender," he told delegates of his ruling Zanu-PF party at its annual conference.
Mr Mugabe also said he had sent a letter to the country's main opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, inviting him to be sworn in as prime minister.
Earlier, Mr Tsvangirai said he would pull out of power-sharing talks unless abductions of his supporters stopped. He said more than 40 members of his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) were missing and accused the Zanu-PF of orchestrating a campaign of terror.
Zimbabwe is currently gripped by economic collapse and a cholera epidemic. The UN on Thursday reported that the death toll from the disease had risen to 1,123 and that 20,896 people had been infected.
UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on Friday the antiquated methods being used to treat the epidemic could not bring hope to the suffering of Zimbabweans, and called for more aid to be sent.
"I believe the situation, contrary to what President Mugabe says, from all the evidence we have is deteriorating and deteriorating rapidly," he told a news conference in London.
US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer meanwhile said there was "a complete collapse right now" in Zimbabwe, and said Mr Mugabe needed to step down.

'Pack of lies'
But in a defiant speech at Zanu-PF's annual conference in Bindura, the president insisted "the only persons with the power to remove Robert Gabriel Mugabe are the people of Zimbabwe. I will never, never, never surrender. Zimbabwe is mine, I am a Zimbabwean. Zimbabwe for Zimbabweans," he said.
Mr Mugabe said international criticism of his government's handling of the cholera outbreak was "a pack of lies".
"I won't be intimidated. Even if I am threatened with beheading, I believe this and nothing will ever move me from it: Zimbabwe belongs to us, not the British," he added. He also questioned whether any of his country's neighbours would "have the courage to order a military intervention". "What would they come and do militarily here? All that they would come and really pose is a threat to our stability," he said. "There would be an unnecessary war started in a foolish manner because of foolish persuasion coming from foolish sources."
Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade became the latest in an increasing number of senior African politicians calling for Mr Mugabe to quit earlier on Friday.
He told the French newspaper, La Croix, that he had supported Mr Mugabe in the past but was forming the view that the president was now the cause of his country's problems.
'No letters'Mr Mugabe said international criticism of his government's handling of the cholera outbreak was "a pack of lies".
"I won't be intimidated. Even if I am threatened with beheading, I believe this and nothing will ever move me from it: Zimbabwe belongs to us, not the British," he added. He also questioned whether any of his country's neighbours would "have the courage to order a military intervention".
"What would they come and do militarily here? All that they would come and really pose is a threat to our stability," he said.
"There would be an unnecessary war started in a foolish manner because of foolish persuasion coming from foolish sources."
Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade became the latest in an increasing number of senior African politicians calling for Mr Mugabe to quit earlier on Friday.
He told the French newspaper, La Croix, that he had supported Mr Mugabe in the past but was forming the view that the president was now the cause of his country's problems.

'No letters'
Also in his speech on Friday, the Zimbabwean leader said he had written to Mr Tsvangirai, inviting him to become prime minister as part of the inclusive power-sharing government, but expressed doubt whether he would accept.
"I have sent letters so that they can come and I can swear [in] and appoint them. We have not reached a stage where we can say with a degree of certainty that they want to be part of this," he said.
Also in his speech on Friday, the Zimbabwean leader said he had written to Mr Tsvangirai, inviting him to become prime minister as part of the inclusive power-sharing government, but expressed doubt whether he would accept.
"I have sent letters so that they can come and I can swear [in] and appoint them. We have not reached a stage where we can say with a degree of certainty that they want to be part of this," he said.
MDC officials told the Reuters news agency that they had received no such letters.
The two rivals signed a power-sharing deal in September, under which Mr Tsvangirai would have become prime minister and head a new council of ministers, but they have been unable to agree on the distribution of key ministries.
Earlier, Mr Tsvangirai said Mr Mugabe had repeatedly broken the spirit of the agreement. He said the president was trying to stay in power at all costs, and threatened to suspend all contact with the Zanu-PF unless there was an end to the abduction of MDC supporters and civil society activists.
"More than 42 members have been abducted," the MDC leader told a news conference in Botswana, where he is currently based. "If these abductions do not cease immediately and if all abductees are not released or charged in a court of law by 1 January 2009, I will be asking the MDC's national council to pass a resolution to suspend all negotiations and contact with Zanu-PF."
Mr Tsvangirai said there could be no meaningful talks while a campaign of terror was being waged to undermine the MDC's support and reduce it to a junior partner in the new government.
BBC Southern Africa correspondent Peter Biles says that this represents a significant shift in Mr Tsvangirai's position, as he had previously remained committed to the power-sharing talks despite a number of reservations.

Drillers break into magma chamber


Source caption: This is a three-dimensional perspective view of a false-color image of the eastern part of the Big Island of Hawaii. It was produced using all three radar frequencies -- X-band, C-band and L-band -- from the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) flying on the space shuttle Endeavour, overlaid on a U.S. Geological Survey digital elevation map. Visible in the center of the image in blue are the summit crater (Kilauea Caldera) which contains the smaller Halemaumau Crater, and the line of collapse craters below them that form the Chain of Craters Road.
The image was acquired on April 12, 1994 during orbit 52 of the space shuttle. The area shown is approximately 34 by 57 kilometers (21 by 35 miles) with the top of the image pointing toward northwest. The image is centered at about 155.25 degrees west longitude and 19.5 degrees north latitude. The false colors are created by displaying three radar channels of different frequency. Red areas correspond to high backscatter at L-HV polarization, while green areas exhibit high backscatter at C-HV polarization. Finally, blue shows high return at X-VV polarization. Using this color scheme, the rain forest appears bright on the image, while the green areas correspond to lower vegetation. The lava flows have different colors depending on their types and are easily recognizable due to their shapes.

It has been described as a geologist's dream - a unique opportunity to study up close the volcanic processes that built the Earth's continents.
Drillers looking for geothermal energy in Hawaii have inadvertently put a well right into a magma chamber.
Molten rock pushed back up the borehole several metres before solidifying, making it perfectly safe to study.
Magma specialist Bruce Marsh says it will allow scientists to observe directly how granites are made.
"This is unprecedented; this is the first time a magma has been found in its natural habitat," the Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, professor told BBC News.
"Before, all we had to deal with were lava flows; but they are the end of a magma's life. They're lying there on the surface, they've de-gassed. It's not the natural habitat.

"It's the difference between looking at dinosaur bones in a museum and seeing a real, living dinosaur roaming out in the field."
Professor Marsh has been discussing the discovery here at the American Geophysical Union's Fall Meeting 2008.

In control
This is not the first time drillers have encountered magma; the depth of the hit and the setting are, however, thought to be unique.
The exploratory well was being put down in the east of Hawaii's Big Island, through the basalt lava fields formed by Kilauea Volcano.
The idea was to find steam from waters heated deep underground in fractured rock, to drive turbines on the surface to generate electricity. The company behind the project, Puna Geothermal Venture, has had a successful power operation in the area for 15 years.
But the drillers were shocked - not only to hit magma but to also hit such a big heat source at the relatively shallow depth of 2.5km.
"It's hotter than hell; it's over a thousand degrees centigrade," said Professor Marsh.
Bill Teplow, a consulting geologist with US Geothermal Inc, who oversaw the drilling, stressed there was no risk of an explosion or of a volcanic eruption at the site.
"It was easily controlled in the well bore because of the magma's highly viscous nature. It flowed up the well bore 5-10m but then the cool drilling fluid caused it to solidify and stop flowing," said Mr Teplow.
"At no time were we in danger of losing control of the well."

The breakthrough was made in 2005. Only now are researchers confident enough about their work to discuss the details publicly.
They are not sure how large the magma chamber is, but some initial testing suggests it may have been put in place by activity from Kilauea in the 1950s, perhaps even the 1920s.Professor Marsh said the chamber was docile and slowly cooling. The consistency of the magma was like chilled pancake syrup, he said.
It is hoped the site can now become a laboratory, with a series of cores drilled around the chamber to better characterise the crystallisation changes occurring in the rock as it loses temperature.
The magma is a dacite, making it chemically distinct from the basalt which forms nearly the entire mass of the Hawaiian Islands and the surrounding oceanic crust. It has a much higher silica content.
Dacite magma chemistry is similar to that of the granitic core of the continents. Professor Marsh said the Puna material, therefore, may represent the first time that the actual process of differentiation of continental-type rock from primitive oceanic basalt had been observed in situ.
"Granites are about 75% SiO2 and basalts are about 50%. Average continental material is probably in between, at about 60%," explained Professor Marsh.
"Here's one that turns out to be 67% silica. It's up there; it's a very respectable silicic magma. And it's in the middle of the ocean, and it could be this is how continents could have been started to be built on the planet."
Geothermal experts are also fascinated by the event. The Kilauea encounter is by far the shallowest and the hottest encounter of rock in a commercial operation, and it will be studied to see if there are lessons that can be applied to electrical generation project elsewhere in the world.
"We were at about 2.5km which is pretty routine drilling depth," explained Mr Teplow.
"But that is half the depth of experimental projects in Europe and Australia where they are drilling very deep into hot granite - some 5-5.5km down - and getting 260C rock; and here we're getting 1,050C rock."

35 Iraq Officials Held in Raids on Key Ministry


Up to 35 officials in the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior ranking as high as general have been arrested over the past three days with some of them accused of quietly working to reconstitute Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party, according to senior security officials in Baghdad.
The arrests, confirmed by officials from the Ministries of the Interior and National Security as well as the prime minister’s office, included four generals. The officials also said that the arrests had come at the hand of an elite counterterrorism force that reports directly to the office of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki.
The arrests reflect a new set of political challenges for Iraq. Mr. Maliki, who has gained popularity as a strong leader but has few reliable political allies, has scrambled to protect himself from domestic rivals as the domineering influence of the United States, his leading backer, begins to fade.
Rumors of coups, conspiracies and new alliances abound in the Iraqi capital a month before provincial elections. Critics of Mr. Maliki say he has been using arrests to consolidate power.
But senior security officials said there was significant evidence tying those arrested to a wide array of political corruption charges, including affiliation with Al Awda, or the Return, a descendant of the Baath Party, which ruled the country as a dictatorship for 35 years, mostly under Mr. Hussein. Tens of thousands of Iraqis died or were persecuted, including Mr. Maliki, a Shiite Muslim, by the Baath Party. It was outlawed after the American invasion in 2003.
While most members of the Baath Party were Sunni Muslims, as Mr. Hussein was, those arrested were a mix of Sunnis and Shiites, several officials said. It was unclear precisely how many Interior Ministry officials were detained.
While most members of the Baath Party were Sunni Muslims, as Mr. Hussein was, those arrested were a mix of Sunnis and Shiites, several officials said. It was unclear precisely how many Interior Ministry officials were detained.

A high-ranking Interior Ministry official said that those affiliated with Al Awda had paid bribes to other officers to recruit them and that huge amounts of money had been found in raids.

He said there could be more arrests. Some of those under arrest belonged to the now-illegal party under Mr. Hussein’s government. Mr. Maliki’s office declined to comment. But one of his advisers, insisting that he not be named because he was not authorized to speak, said the detainees were involved in “a conspiracy.”

The Ministry of the Interior is dedicated to Iraq’s internal security, and includes the police forces. The ministry has a history of being heavily infiltrated with Shiite militias, though it has improved considerably over the past two years.

A police officer, who knows several of the detainees but spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution, said they were innocent, longstanding civil servants and had little in common with one another. Those who once belonged to the Baath Party were lower-level members, he said, insisting that the arrests were politically motivated.

Interior Minister Jawad Kadem al-Bolani, who has not been implicated and is out of the country, has his own political ambitions and has been expanding his secular Iraqi Constitutional Party. Iraq is a nation where leadership has often changed by coup, and as next month’s provincial elections approach, worry about violence is increasing. So are accusations about politically charged detentions.